The Kyler Murray conundrum: How the next 8 games will shape the Cardinals future

The next two months might shape the direction of the Arizona Cardinals for the foreseeable future.

Quarterback Kyler Murray is on track to make his season debut Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, 11 months after tearing his ACL. His performance will essentially serve as an audition for the Cardinals’ new leadership regime and quarterback-needy teams around the NFL.

But with Murray’s near-top-of-the-market contract, his future is far more complicated than simply grading his performance over the final eight games of the season.

“If there’s a creative way to rework that contract,” an executive with another team said, “I haven’t been able to find it.”

The executive, along with the rest of the league sources in this story, were granted anonymity so they could speak openly about a player on a rival team.

The No. 1 pick of the 2019 NFL Draft signed a five-year, $230.5 million extension in April 2022, which marked the first offseason Murray was eligible for a new deal. The contract included $160 million in guarantees and runs through the 2028 season. Murray signed the deal before general manager Steve Keim stepped down and coach Kliff Kingsbury was fired in January.

The 26-year-old’s future is littered with so many variables that it’s almost impossible to predict how it’ll play out. So let’s lay out the possibilities as well as what’s at stake as all parties involved assess their options for what promises to be a fascinating offseason.

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Murray stays in Arizona

Murray’s career started hot. He won NFL offensive rookie of the year in 2019, earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2020 and propelled the Cardinals to 11 wins in 2021 — their best season in six years — although he missed three games with an ankle injury.

It also hasn’t gone perfectly. Even since Murray’s draft year, there have been concerns over his commitment to the playbook and ability to connect with teammates. His performance — and with it, the Cardinals’ record — waned because of late-season injuries from 2020 to 2022. Whether it’s durability, playing style or Kingsbury’s offensive system, something was missing as the games grew more important down the stretch in the past three years.

Meanwhile, this year’s Cardinals (1-8) are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft with the league’s worst record. They’re also projected to have another top-20 selection because they own the Houston Texans’ first-rounder in 2024. Quarterback prospects Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are viewed as franchise cornerstones who are considered spectacular enough for teams to make uniquely aggressive moves to shuffle the deck at the position.

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The combination of factors has led to the assumption the Cardinals will draft a quarterback and cut ties with Murray. We’ll revisit this idea eventually.

The rub is that Murray might play well enough to win some games and remove the Cardinals from the quarterback conversation in April.

“You’re in purgatory. The best-case scenario is he plays well,” an executive said. “The contract numbers aren’t crazy for a franchise quarterback if he’s playing well.”

Murray’s average cap hit from 2024 to 2028 will be $48.6 million — as high as $55.5 million in 2026 and as low as $43.5 million in 2027 — so the deal doesn’t necessarily hamstring the Cardinals from competing as long as he plays at a high level and stays healthy. Extensions and restructures can also dim the cost each season.

Another intriguing factor: Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has improved the scheme in Arizona, according to league personnel who have studied the Cardinals. No, the Cardinals aren’t some statistical juggernaut through nine games, but they entered the season with personnel issues beyond the DeAndre Hopkins release, then started two backup quarterbacks and lost running back James Conner and tight end Zach Ertz to injuries. They’re as deep into a rebuild as any team in the league.

Petzing’s offense might even reinvigorate Murray.

“What this coaching staff is doing, (Murray) could cause problems for defenses if he’s playing within the system,” another executive said. “That’s still an ‘if.’ You can get a better evaluation now in Arizona’s new system. He was in a system before that, just wasn’t built to sustain success at an NFL level.”

If Murray thrives over the next couple of months, the outcome with the longest perceived odds might turn into the best situation. Then, the Cardinals can turn that top-10 pick into wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., tight end Brock Bowers or one of the highly graded offensive tackles, or they could trade back and collect more assets.

Hindsight could prove painful if the Cardinals miss out on Williams or Maye. But they need to play Murray so new GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon can make a firsthand evaluation. It’d also help to showcase him to the rest of the NFL.

There’s another financial factor with this decision. Murray will have earned $69 million in cash from 2022 to 2023, so Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill is going to want to see him on the field.

“If you’re the owner,” an executive said, “do you want to pay him (almost) $70 million for two years and watch him sit on the bench?”

Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has what could be a franchise-altering decision to make on Kyler Murray at the end of the season. (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Murray is traded

OK, so hypothetically, the Cardinals finish with a top-two draft pick and have a shot at Williams or Maye. Just trade Murray in that scenario, right?

Not so fast.

“That’s just not a tradeable contract,” an executive said.

Said another exec: “Moving that contract is problematic.”

Murray will earn a fully guaranteed $35.3 million salary in 2024. And March 17, the fifth day of the 2024 league year, if Murray is on the roster, he’ll lock in a fully guaranteed $11.9 million for the 2025 season.

So if the Cardinals choose to trade Murray, they’ll want to do it before March 17. And if other teams know the Cardinals are ready to part with him, they’ll lose some leverage in negotiations.

“As another team, why would I do that?” an executive said about a trade. “They’d probably just cut him.”

There is logic behind acquiring Murray, though. Looking at the top 11 of the 2024 draft order, there’s a case to be made for each team in the top 10 to take a quarterback. Of course, there aren’t enough quarterbacks to go around at that point.

Most of those QB-needy teams aren’t heavily invested in the position for the long term. So if, let’s say, the New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Falcons aren’t able to fill their needs in the draft, Murray could be the next best option.

Other possibilities include free agents Kirk Cousins (a 35-year-old coming off a torn Achilles), Ryan Tannehill (a 35-year-old coming off back-to-back ankle injuries) and Baker Mayfield, a cut candidate in Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo or trade candidate Dak Prescott if contract negotiations with the Dallas Cowboys unexpectedly deteriorate.

All things considered, Murray is still an intriguing option as he enters his prime years. Teams will be doing their homework in the coming months.

“You have to find out about the guy, about his work ethic and all that,” an executive said. “Does he fit into your system? Can he make a team better? How does he deal with adversity? If a team doesn’t have a QB, you weigh him against (later) draft (prospects). He’s played in the NFL at a high level at times, so someone could take a chance, especially if he proves healthy.”

It still doesn’t make a trade a sure thing.

The Cardinals could get creative to facilitate a move. They could convert about $34 million of his salary into a signing bonus to reduce the cost for his future team, but that would be added to the top of the $46 million in dead money the Cardinals would accrue in a trade.

Since it feels unlikely the Cardinals would recoup a first-round pick in such a move, that would be an exorbitant price to pay for a draft pick. For comparison, the New York Giants just ate roughly $9.5 million of defensive lineman Leonard Williams’ contract at the trade deadline to buy the Seattle Seahawks’ second-rounder.

Additionally, as the Green Bay Packers are recognizing this season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ $40 million in dead money on the books, it’s tough to be competitive when nearly a quarter of the salary cap is tied to a player employed by another team. And no, the Cardinals wouldn’t expect to be contenders in 2024, but Bidwill also might not jump at the idea of a 10-figure payday for a quarterback who didn’t see the field much in the two seasons since signing the deal.

Another possibility: The Cardinals could trade Murray and a draft pick if another team absorbs the quarterback’s entire remaining salary. (The Cardinals would still be on the hook for $46 million in dead money in 2024.) In 2017, the Texans shipped quarterback Brock Osweiler, his $16 million contract and a second-rounder to the Cleveland Browns as part of a pick swap.

“Arizona isn’t in a position to trade picks,” an executive said. “Monti has done a good job there and set them up for success in the draft.”

Other branches could sprout on the trade-Murray tree. Considering the state of the Cardinals’ roster, it’s not inconceivable he could play well over the next eight games while the team continues to lose. If the Cardinals remain in control of a top-two pick and Murray becomes a tradeable commodity, they could stomach a lesser return — such as a mid-round draft pick — by moving him.

Similarly, the Cardinals could draft their quarterback and keep Murray into training camp to assure their rookie is ready — or to wait for another team to lose its QB to injury. A post-June 1 trade would yield $13 million in dead cap in 2024 and $33 million in 2025.

This strategy could prolong the rebuild because it’ll clog up the books for two years, but it might lead to a better draft asset in a trade.

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Murray is released

Murray’s contract is extremely player-friendly, and he doesn’t owe anyone an apology for that. He played well enough to create leverage, and the Cardinals wanted to keep their franchise quarterback happy.

Not long after the deal was signed, however, it was revealed the Cardinals inserted a rare clause into the contract to monitor his film study (the clause was subsequently deleted because of the distraction it created). Soon after that, Murray tore his ACL and the organization cleaned house.

At the time of the deal, the contract raised eyebrows with other front offices. Since last offseason — again, with hindsight being 20/20 — it’s been widely viewed as among the most cumbersome contracts in the league.

“First of all, why did they sign him?” an executive wondered. “They didn’t have to do this contract.”

Instead, the executive noted, the Cardinals could have held Murray through this season on his fifth-year option and then used the franchise tag in 2024.

Now, the Cardinals have a new regime, and new regimes famously try to rid the books of big contracts from old regimes. If Ossenfort and Gannon determine over the next two months that Murray isn’t their guy, it could make more sense to cut him in March and take their lumps in 2024 rather than hope for a turnaround. If one doesn’t materialize, it’ll hurt the budget in 2025.

There’s so much at play: Murray’s performance, his fit with Gannon and Petzing, his reputation around the league, the contract dynamics, even whether he’d consider a more aggressive move to adjust his deal to facilitate a trade.

But as the Cardinals navigate the second half of a lost season, an absolutely fascinating business decision looms large.

(Top photo: Norm Hall / Getty Images)

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Mittie Cheatwood

Update: 2024-05-23

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